2017 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 5/11/2017 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change-0.1 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %0.5 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change2.3 %2.5 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.0 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.2 %0.4 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change1.6 %1.9 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.7 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change1.7 %2.1 %

Highlights
March was an unusually weak month for inflation and April, after yesterday's import & export price report followed by today's producer price report, is shaping up to prove an unusually strong month. Producer prices rose 0.5 percent to easily exceed Econoday's high-side forecast for only 0.3 percent. Excluding food & energy, producer prices rose 0.4 percent which again is 2 tenths above the high estimate, topped off by less food, energy & trade services which jumped 0.7 percent which beats the high estimate by 4 tenths.

Gains for computers (up 1.1 percent) and cigarettes (up 2.2 percent) were major factors in the month as were guest rooms, up a monthly 8.2 percent and reflecting holiday demand tied to the late Easter. This increase is oversized and raises questions whether this year's Easter shift, from March last year to April this year, was accurately offset by the report's seasonal and calendar adjustments.

A rise in short-term interest rates following the Fed's rate hike in March is also a factor in the report, raising prices for securities brokerages and loan services. A special negative in the report is a 0.3 percent decline in trade services which follows March's 0.1 percent dip. Weakness in trade services hints at stubborn weakness in general demand and points, perhaps, to a swing lower for this report in May.

Because of the size of the monthly swings and questions surrounding Easter, March and April will have to be taken together when assessing inflation data, as it is when assessing retail sales for the two months. Today's report points to another set of upside surprises in tomorrow's consumer price report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The producer price report in March, like import & export prices before it and consumer and PCE prices after, was unexpectedly weak, the result at least in part of the month's decline in oil prices. But service prices at the producer level were also weak as they also proved to be at the consumer level. Lack of price pressure does point to lack of demand though April's better showing for oil is pointing to a rebound for the PPI-FD headline, at a consensus gain of 0.2 percent vs March's 0.1 percent decline. Less food & energy is also expected to rise 0.2 percent with the less food, energy & trade reading also at a 0.2 percent consensus.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/143/144/135/116/137/138/109/1310/1211/1412/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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