2017 Economic Calendar
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Released On 9/13/2017 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change-0.1 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change1.9 %2.4 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change-0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change1.8 %2.0 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.0 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change1.9 %1.9 %

In a report not affected by Hurricane Harvey, producer prices once again couldn't live up to expectations, edging 0.2 percent higher in August vs Econoday's consensus for 0.3 percent. Also 1 tenth below expectations is the core (less food & energy) which could manage only a 0.1 percent gain. This is the third month in a row that the core has missed the consensus.

At 0.2 percent is the less food, energy & trade services reading where the gain relative to the core reflects yet another weak showing for trade services which is a closely watched component that hasn't posted a gain since May. Service industries showing special weakness in August are hotel services and securities/investment services.

The lack of pressure comes despite a 3.3 percent monthly jump in energy costs that however does not reflect Hurricane Harvey as the shock, as explained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hit too late in the month to be picked up in the report. Even before Harvey, wholesale gasoline prices surged 9.5 percent in the month. Offsetting the rise in energy is a drop in food, down 1.3 percent and reflecting wide declines through components.

Though energy costs are a major wildcard right now, this report speaks to what is a persistent lack of price pressures in the economy, in this case at the base of the economy. Today's report won't be firming up confidence for tomorrow's consumer price report where a rebound, like that expected for this report, is the call.

Consensus Outlook
Inflation readings have been very soft and producer prices have been among the softest, posting a 0.1 percent decline in July. Energy firmed in August even before Hurricane Harvey hit at month end and forecasters see a rebound to a headline 0.3 percent gain. The consensus for less food & energy is a 0.2 percent increase with less food, energy & trade services at a consensus 0.2 percent gain. Note that trade services were a glaring weakness of the July report.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/143/144/135/116/137/138/109/1310/1211/1412/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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