2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 6/28/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk6/23, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level218 K220 K219 K to 225 K227 K
4-week Moving Average - Level221.00 K222.00 K
New Claims - Change-3 K9 K

Initial jobless claims rose more than expected in the June 23 week but remain very low, at 227,000 which lifts the 4-week average only marginally to 222,000. This average is roughly in line with readings in May which points convincingly at another strong employment report for the month of June. Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, fell 21,000 to 1.705 million with this 4-week average down 3,000 to 1.720 million. All of these readings are at or near historic lows with the 4-week average for continuing claims the lowest since December 1973. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a very low 1.2 percent.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 220,000 in the June 23 week vs 218,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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