2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 7/5/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk6/30, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level227 K228 K223 K220 K to 225 K231 K
4-week Moving Average - Level222.00 K222.25 K224.50 K
New Claims - Change9 K10 K3 K

After hitting deep lows in mid June, initial jobless claims have been inching higher, up 3,000 in the June 30 week to 231,000. The 4-week average, at 224,500, is also moving higher, up 2,250 to 224,500. The increases, however, are limited and should have no effect on expectations for tomorrow's monthly employment report which was sampled during the June 16 week when initial claims came in at a very favorable 218,000.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, rose a noticeable 32,000 to 1.739 million though this 4-week average, at 1.718 million, is down 2,000 and at a new 45-year low. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at only 1.2 percent.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 223,000 in the June 30 week vs 227,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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