2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 8/16/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk8/11, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level213 K214 K215 K213 K to 220 K212 K
4-week Moving Average - Level214.25 K214.50 K215.50 K
New Claims - Change-6 K-5 K-2 K

The labor market is the key strength of the U.S. economy, highlighted once again by jobless claims data. Initial claims edged 2,000 lower in the August 11 week to a 212,000 level that is just below Econoday's consensus range. The 4-week average edged higher but at 215,500 is already trending 5,000 to 10,000 lower than the month-ago comparison in what offers an early indication of strength for the August employment report.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, are down very sharply, 39,000 lower in the August 4 week to 1.721 million with this 4-week average down 8,000 to 1.739 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, like all readings in this report, is very low, steady at 1.2 percent. There are no special factors in this report.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 215,000 in the August 11 week vs 213,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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