2018 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 4/6/2018 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change313,000 326,000 175,000 112,000  to 225,000 103,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.1 %4.0 %3.9 % to 4.1 %4.1 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change287,000 320,000 175,000 110,000  to 225,000 102,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change31,000 32,000 20,000 10,000  to 25,000 22,000 
Participation Rate - level63.0 %62.8 %62.8 % to 63.0 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.1 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.6 %2.7 %2.7 % to 2.8 %2.7 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
In mixed results, March payroll growth of 103,000 is well below expectations but wage indications from average hourly earnings do show a little pressure as was expected, up 0.3 percent on the month with the year-on-year rate up 1 tenth to 2.7 percent. The unemployment rate did not move down which was the consensus, instead holding steady at what is still a very low 4.1 percent.

Looking first at payroll growth, February and January have been revised with a net of minus 50,000 the result. The first quarter average of 202,000 is a bit below the fourth quarter's 221,000. The breakdown for March shows another very strong showing for manufacturing, up 22,000 which hits Econoday's consensus, and with professional & business services, a key component for tracking labor demand, rising a respectable 33,000. Yet the temporary help subcomponent for this reading fell 1,000 after rising 21,000 in February. And construction payrolls, which have been on the rise, fell 15,000. Retail also fell, down 4,000 in the month.

Judging by today's results, the labor market wasn't quite as hot as previously expected which turns down concern over wages even though those pressures did rise tangibly in March. On net, the March employment report will not likely turn up the heat on the Federal Reserve to increase its pace of rate tightenings.

Consensus Outlook
After two months of standout strength, cooling is Econoday's consensus for March nonfarm payrolls which are nevertheless seen rising a very respectable 175,000. And movement is the call for the unemployment rate which is expected to fall 1 tenth further to 4.0 percent which would increasingly point to full employment and the risk of wage inflation. And wages are expected to show limited pressure in March's report with the monthly consensus for average hourly earnings at a noticeable 0.3 percent with the yearly rate seen moving up a tick to 2.7 percent. Private payrolls, like nonfarm payrolls, are expected to rise 175,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to increase 20,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours and the labor participation rate, which jumped in February, expected to come back 2 tenths to 62.8 percent.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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