2018 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 7/6/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change223,000 244,000 190,000 144,000  to 212,000 213,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level3.8 %3.8 %3.7 % to 3.8 %4.0 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change218,000 239,000 182,000 142,000  to 209,000 202,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change18,000 19,000 15,000 10,000  to 18,000 36,000 
Participation Rate - level62.7 %62.7 %62.7 % to 62.8 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.7 %2.8 %2.7 % to 2.9 %2.7 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
A very healthy employment report that shows brisk growth and also a movement into the workforce is headlined by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for June which just tops Econoday's consensus range. A sharp rise in the number of unemployed actively looking for a job, to 6.564 million from 6.065 million in May, lifted the unemployment rate 2 tenths to 4.0 percent and also lifted the participation rate 2 tenths to 62.9 percent.

More people looking for work is not a risk for wage inflation as average hourly earnings rose only 0.2 percent on the month and held unchanged on the year at 2.7 percent. Both of these results are at the bottom of the consensus range. Hours data are mixed with the workweek for all employees unchanged at 34.5 hours but with manufacturing showing a bounce back following a May disruption in the auto sector.

The payroll breakdown is headlined by manufacturing which surged 36,000 to double Econoday's high estimate. Construction added a sizable 13,000 with mining once again higher, up 5,000. Business is bustling and companies are turning to outside contractors with professional & business services up 50,000 and within this temporary help up 9,000, both strong gains. Showing declines, however, are trade & transportation, offering evidence that truckers are hard to find, and also a 22,000 setback for retail which had popped higher in May.

The rise in the number of people looking for a job is very good news, indicating that discouraged workers are more confident in their prospects. And very importantly, this gives FOMC members some breathing room as it reduces wage pressures and underscores Jerome Powell's stated desire to bring more people into the workforce.

Consensus Outlook
Following a very strong May, nonfarm payrolls are expected to extend their strength to June where Econoday's consensus is calling for a 190,000 rise. The unemployment rate, down 1 tenth to 3.8 percent, was the highlight of the May report with June's rate seen holding unchanged. Wages showed some pressure in May and some pressure is expected for June with the monthly gain for average hourly earnings at a 0.3 percent consensus, enough to lift the year-on-year rate by an expected 1 tenth to 2.8 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 182,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to show another solid increase at 15,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours with the labor participation rate also unchanged at 62.9 percent.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The unemployment rate measures those who have a job relative to those who are actively looking for a job. During recessions, those actively looking may grow discouraged, dropping out of the workforce and, in a counter- intuitive twist, putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate. During times of economic strength, workforce dropouts may regain their confidence and begin actively looking for a job once again which puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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