2018 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 1/29/2018 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.6 %0.8 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.8 %0.4 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.8 %1.7 %1.7 % to 2.0 %1.7 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.5 %1.6 %1.5 % to 1.7 %1.5 %

Highlights
Personal income rose 0.4 percent in December with wages and salaries up a solid 0.5 percent. Spending also rose 0.4 percent in December with November revised 2 tenths higher to a very strong 0.8 percent gain. Giving a boost to spending but hinting at trouble for the consumer is a 1 tenth dip in the savings rate to a 13-year low 2.4 percent which follows a sharply downward revised 2.5 percent rate in November (2.9 percent initially reported).

Price data remain very subdued, up 0.1 percent for the overall index and up 0.2 percent for the core which excludes food and energy. Year-on-year, the overall price index is up 1.7 percent which is 1 tenth below November while the core is stable at 1.5 percent.

The wages and salaries reading is a positive for the outlook as is the upward revision to November consumer spending. But the low reading for the savings rate is a concern and suggests that consumers dipped into their bank accounts to fund spending. Note that today's data were part of last week's fourth-quarter GDP report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The monthly personal income and outlays report will unbundle December's data from last week's fourth-quarter GDP report. Personal income is seen rising 0.3 percent which would match November's gain while consumer spending is expected to slow only slightly to 0.5 percent vs November's very solid 0.6 percent gain. The PCE price index is expected to inch only 0.1 percent higher for a year-on-year rate of 1.7 percent with the core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, seen up 0.2 percent for a yearly 1.6 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/293/13/294/305/316/297/318/309/2810/2911/2912/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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