2018 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 5/31/2018 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus Range
Personal Income - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.0 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.4 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change2.0 %2.0 %2.0 % to 2.2 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.9 %1.8 %1.8 % to 2.1 %

Consensus Outlook
Personal income is seen rising a moderate 0.3 percent in April while consumer spending, in what will be the first major input into second-quarter GDP, is also expected to increase 0.3 percent. The core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy and which is the most closely watched of all inflation readings, is seen rising very marginally, only 0.1 percent higher on the month for yearly deceleration to 1.8 percent vs March's 1.9 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/293/13/294/305/316/297/318/309/2810/2911/2912/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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