2018 Economic Calendar
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International Trade  
Released On 8/3/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Trade Balance Level$-43.1 B$-43.2 B$-45.6 B$-47.2 B to $-41.0 B$-46.3 B

Highlights
The nation's trade deficit proved a little deeper than expected in June, at $46.3 billion vs Econoday's consensus for $45.6 billion.

After a run of strength going back to February, exports posted a 0.7 percent decline to $213.8 billion in the month with a rise in service exports offset by a drop in goods exports where capital goods, vehicles and especially consumer goods posted declines.

Imports, in special focus of course given the tariff situation, rose 0.6 percent to a monthly $260.2 billion with consumer goods, the sore spot in the nation's deficit, rising a sharp $2.0 billion to $53.4 billion. Oil imports were also up, rising $1.2 billion to $14.1 billion.

Country data show a deepening deficit with China, at $33.5 billion in June with the year-to-date deficit 8.6 percent wider at $185.7 billion. Other year-to-date deficits include an 11 percent deepening with Europe at $77.6 billion, a 5.5 percent deepening with Mexico at $38.0 billion, and a 23.4 percent improvement with Canada at $8.1 billion.

Though deeper than expected in June, the nation's trade deficit has been improving though the outlook, given tit for tats on tariffs, is uncertain.

Consensus Outlook
The international trade deficit for goods and services is expected to widen in June to $45.6 billion vs May's deficit of $43.1 billion. The goods side of this report has already been released and showed sizable widening as exports fell and import growth held steady.

Definition
International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Merchandise trade is available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than one hundred principal Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) system commodity groupings. Data are also available for 48 countries and 7 geographic regions. Detailed information is reported on oil and motor vehicle imports. Services trade is available by export, import and trade balance for seven principal end-use categories.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
U.S. exports rise when foreign economies are strong. Weakness in the value of the dollar also helps exports, making U.S. goods and services less expensive to foreigners. Imports rise when the U.S. economy is strong. Strength in the dollar, making foreign products less expensive to U.S. buyers, helps imports.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The nation's international trade balance has been in continuous deficit since the 1980s. Yet trade, even though in deficit, can still add to GDP provided the deficit is narrowing. A deepening deficit is a negative for GDP.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/63/74/55/36/67/68/39/510/511/212/6
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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