2018 Economic Calendar
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Import and Export Prices  
Released On 9/14/2018 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Import Prices - M/M change0.0 %-0.1 %-0.1 %-0.3 % to 0.2 %-0.6 %
Export Prices - M/M change-0.5 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.4 %-0.1 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change4.8 %4.9 %3.7 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change4.3 %3.6 %

Highlights
The dollar has been strong which does help explain at least some of the surprising weakness for import prices which fell 0.6 percent in August to come in well below Econoday's low estimate. Prices for imported petroleum fell 3.9 percent in the month and explain some of the weakness but even when excluding petroleum, import prices still fell 0.2 percent.

Prices of foods & feeds are a positive in the month, up 0.4 percent though prices of imported finished goods remain dead flat, inching 0.1 percent lower for capital goods and unchanged for vehicles and also consumer goods. Year-on-year, finished goods prices are barely in the plus column and are led by consumer goods at only 0.6 percent.

But the weakness is more than just the dollar and imports, it's also on the export side where prices fell 0.1 percent on top of the prior month's 0.5 percent drop. Prices for finished exports are also very weak, declining 0.1 percent for both vehicles and consumer goods with capital goods up only 0.2 percent. Prices agricultural exports also inched 0.2 percent ahead though the year-on-year rate is in the negative column at 1.7 percent in what is bad news for the nation's farmers.

Price pressures on the global level are very subdued and further gains for the dollar would point to increasingly subdued levels for imported inflation. But for the Federal Reserve the risk right now is tied, not to global prices or consumer prices, but to lack of capacity in the labor market and the prospect of wage inflation.

Consensus Outlook
Import price pressures were on a tariff-boosted rise before easing back abruptly in both June and July. And with oil soft, forecasters see August import prices slipping 0.1 percent after no change in July. Export prices for August are seen up 0.2 percent vs July's 0.5 percent decline.

Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term price trends for tradable goods, whether inflationary, disinflationary, or deflationary.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/102/163/154/125/116/147/138/149/1410/1211/1512/13
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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