2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 2/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level59.7 59.3 58.6 57.7  to 60.0 59.1 

Overheating has to be the concern of ISM's manufacturing sample where the January index came in at 59.1, a level held down by a slowing in employment which may signal that the sample can't find enough people to keep up production. Production has been in the mid-60s the past 3 months which has been slowing delivery times which are at 59.1. Both of these are showing the strongest rates of upward change since the easy comparisons early in the post-2008 expansion.

New orders just keep pouring in, at 65.4 in January which is also the best in nearly 10 years, and likewise for backlogs at 56.2. And there's pressure very evident in input costs which are at 72.7 for the highest level in 6-1/2 years.

Employment is the weak link in the January report, slowing nearly 4 points to what however is still 54.2 to indicate a solid monthly net increase in the sample's staffing. This report has been sending loud signals of sharp acceleration for the last year, and acceleration is now beginning to take hold in government data, at least in some of the data most notably factory orders and shipments. If the factory sector does indeed begin to overheat, we can look back at this report and also the regional factory reports led by the Philly Fed as offering the first signals.

Consensus Outlook
January's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 58.6 vs a revised 59.3 in December (59.7 initially reported) when unusual strength across readings -- in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's "modest" assessment of overall factory activity -- was once again the outcome. New orders, at 69.4, hit a 14-year high in December in results that included unusual strength for export orders, production, backlog orders, and employment.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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