2018 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 3/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For Feb, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level59.1 58.6 57.7  to 59.5 60.8 

No sample has been reporting consistently stronger results than ISM manufacturing where the composite index rose to 60.8 in February, easily topping Econoday's high estimate and the strongest reading in 14 years.

Strength lies in new orders, at 64.2, which are filling backlogs which are at 59.8 for another 14-year high. The need to keep up with orders is triggering new hiring among the sample with employment at 59.7. Export orders are key for the sample, up 3 points in the month to 62.8 which is a 7-year high. And orders for imports are also very elevated, at 60.5 and an 11-year high.

Capacity stress is evident with delays at 61.1 for an 8-year high. Prices are another sign of stress with input costs at 74.2, up 1.5 points and the most severe reading in seven years.

This sample, in contrast to actual data from the government that are comparatively flat, continues to carve out one of its very strongest runs in 70 years of data.

Consensus Outlook
February's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 58.6 vs 59.1 in January when new orders posted their best showing in nearly 10 years. Capacity stress is the question for this sample with delivery times already beginning to slow sharply.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

powered by  [Econoday]