2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 8/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level60.2 59.5 58.0  to 60.4 58.1 

Highlights
A useful easing in what were enormous and perhaps unsustainable rates of growth is the theme of ISM's manufacturing report for July. The headline pretty much tells the story, at a very strong plus-50 score of 58.1 but right at the low end of expectations and more than 2 points down from an overheated June.

The biggest factor in the index's decline is improvement in July deliveries where delays in June were among the very longest in the 70-year history of this report. But new orders also slowed though only slightly and at 60.2 remain robust. Growth in backlogs also slowed but likewise remains very favorable. Production eased back while inventories of raw materials rose, perhaps reflecting intentional stockpiling to avoid shortages. Risks of tariffs and high steel costs remain the sample's key concerns.

A contrast between this report and the PMI manufacturing report released earlier this morning is exports, strong in this report and weak in the latter. Otherwise the themes of both are the same: strong demand, strong activity, and capacity stress.

Consensus Outlook
Near record delivery delays and a plus 75 reading for input costs headlined ISM's overheated manufacturing report in June. Forecasters see the composite index easing only slightly from June's 60.2, at a consensus 59.5.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Readings above 50 in the ISM manufacturing index signal month-to-month growth for U.S. manufacturing as a whole, while those below 50 indicate monthly contraction. For the economy as a whole, readings above 60 signal national GDP growth of 5 percent, while those below 43 signal GDP contraction.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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