2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 7/5/2018 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level58.6 58.4 56.0  to 59.0 59.1 

Highlights
Business continues to boom for ISM's non-manufacturing sample where the headline composite just tops Econoday's consensus range at 59.1 in June. And forecasts for July may be bumped up given an outstanding showing for new orders, at 63.2 for a 1.7 point gain that was fed by strong acceleration in export orders, up 3 points to 60.5 and showing no drag from tariff talk (which has so far been centered in goods, not services). The build in backlog orders did slow slightly, down 4 points from May, but remains very strong at a 56.5 level that points to the need for production and employment increases ahead.

The report's employment index for June came in at 53.6 which is down 1/2 point and isn't pointing to acceleration for tomorrow's payroll data. Other readings include improvement in delivery delays, a slowing inventory build, and a little less heat for input prices -- all welcome outcomes that reduce the risk of overheating for this sample.

But comments from the sample remain very heated, centered on tariff worries and tariff effects as well as trouble in shipping especially a lack of truckers. All 17 sectors show growth led in the month by the report's two non-service sectors: mining and construction.

The pace of this report is very strong and the slight cooling in the supply chain readings points to sustainably for a sample that continues to show steady and outstanding strength.

Consensus Outlook
A steady pace is the call for the ISM non-manufacturing index which has been signaling strong activity underscored by sharp slowing in delivery times. Higher costs tied to tariffs and a shifting outlook for trade have been central concerns of the sample. Forecasters see the index easing very slightly to 58.4 in June.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing index is an equally weighted composite of four separate components: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The report tracks 17 industries, 15 of which are from the services sector as well as mining and construction.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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