2018 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence  
Released On 7/31/2018 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level126.4 127.1 127.0 126.0  to 128.5 127.4 

Highlights
Consumer confidence is steady and strong, at 127.4 in July to beat out Econoday's consensus by 4 tenths. Assessments of the labor market also remain strong with those saying jobs are currently hard-to-get nearly unchanged at 15.0 percent and those describing jobs as plentiful up nearly 3 percentage points to 43.1 percent. These readings are inputs into the present situation component which rose to 165.9 from 161.7 in a gain that points to July as another month of consumer strength.

Unlike the present situation, the expectations component eased back by more than 2 points to 101.7. The dip reflects a little less optimism on income prospects and a little less optimism on future job prospects.

One reading that will catch the eye of FOMC policy makers at this week's meeting is a 2 tenths rise in inflation expectations to 5.1 percent. This is still a moderate indication for this particular reading but the direction is clearly upward, moving from 4.7 percent as recently as April.

A weakness in the report is a sharp 1 percentage point drop to 5.1 percent in buying plans for homes in what is the latest unfavorable news for home sales. The assessment of the stock market is less bullish with the bulls down more than 6 points to 36.5 percent and the bears up nearly 7 points to 29.4 percent.

It's hard to make further upward movement in this report given its enormous strength, right at nearly 20 year highs. But the kicking in of inflation expectations is something new and does coincide with very clear inflation pressures being reported by manufacturers all year.

Consensus Outlook
Econoday's consensus, at 127.0 in July, is calling for steady strength in the consumer confidence index which came in at 126.4 in June. Job assessments, especially the closely watched jobs-hard-to-get subcomponent, have been extraordinarily strong.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer confidence and retail sales generally move in tandem but not necessarily each and every month. Note that consumer assessments of employment conditions are heavily weighted in the consumer confidence index.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/273/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/27
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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