2018 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence  
Released On 8/28/2018 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level127.4 127.9 126.8 124.0  to 128.0 133.4 

Highlights
The consumer sentiment index at mid-month came in much weaker than expected in complete contrast to today's consumer confidence index which easily tops expectations, at 133.4 for August vs Econoday's high forecast for 128.0 and median consensus for 126.8. This is the strongest result since the dotcom fever of October 2000. July is revised 5 tenths higher to 127.9.

The most important detail in the August report is a notable decline in those saying jobs are currently hard to get which is down very steeply from an already thin 14.8 percent to 12.7 percent. This is extremely favorable for this reading and is certain to raise expectations for a very healthy monthly employment report for August.

A second detail that speaks to impressive strength is the outlook on income. Optimists here rose a very sharp 5.1 percentage points to 25.5 percent with pessimists shrinking 2.4 points to 7.0 percent. The gain here not only reflects the strength of the labor market but also the strength of the stock market.

Boosted by jobs hard to get, the present situation index rose from 166.1 to 172.2 while the expectations index, boosted by income prospects, increased from 102.4 last month to 107.6 this month.

Another positive in the report, at least for Federal Reserve policy makers who are concerned that inflation doesn't overshoot their target, is a 2 tenths dip in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.8 percent which for this reading is nevertheless elevated.

Bulls are dominating stock market sentiment, at 39.4 percent for a 2.2 point gain from July with bears at 24.5 percent and down 4.1 points. Most see interest rates moving higher, at 69.4 percent vs 71.4 percent in July.

Buying plans are yet another major positive showing strong gains across the board: autos, homes, and major appliances. This report points to a noticeable upward revision in Friday's consumer sentiment report and more importantly hints at building consumer momentum for third-quarter GDP.

Consensus Outlook
At 126.8 for August, Econoday's consensus is calling for steady strength in the consumer confidence index which came in at 127.4 in July. Job assessments have been exceptionally strong in this report while inflation expectations have been turning higher.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer confidence and retail sales generally move in tandem but not necessarily each and every month. Note that consumer assessments of employment conditions are heavily weighted in the consumer confidence index.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/273/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/27
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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