2018 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence  
Released On 9/25/2018 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level133.4 134.7 131.7 130.0  to 134.3 138.4 

Highlights
Headline strength is spectacular in the consumer confidence report yet the details won't be lifting expectations for the September employment report. Confidence shot up to 138.4 to easily surpass Econoday's consensus range in a reading that's the highest in 18 years and now within shot of the all-time record of 144.7 hit during the dotcom sensation of 2000.

The less spectacular result comes from the consumer's assessment of the labor market where those who say jobs are hard to get increased, not decreased, by a sizable 1.1 percentage points to 13.2 percent. This is a very closely watched reading by forecasters and is only marginally offset by a 3.4 percentage point rise to 45.7 percent in those who say jobs are currently plentiful. Another positive is strength in the assessment of business conditions which helped lift the present situation component by 3 tenths to 173.1.

Turning to the assessment of future conditions, those who see their income improving over the next six months declined 2.8 points to 22.6 percent which is offset in part by a 4 tenths decline to 6.5 percent for those who see their income falling. More clearly positive are the assessments of future labor and business conditions which made for a 6.0 point gain in the expectations index to 115.3.

Buying plans for autos are very strong, up 4 tenths to 13.4 percent, and home buying plans are also positive, up 3 tenths to 6.6 percent in what is badly needed good news for the nation's Realtors and home builders. Buying plans for major appliances are strong but down slightly at 52.9 percent.

Sentiment in the stock market is on the rise with bulls up 2.7 percentage points to 42.5 percent and bears decreasing by 1.3 points to 22.4 percent. On interest rates, 68.2 percent see them moving higher and only 6.8 percent lower which is of note given prospects for a Federal Reserve rate hike tomorrow.

This report isn't quite as strong as it looks but it is very very strong and follows the mid-month jump in the consumer sentiment index to suggest a pivot higher this month in consumer spirits. This hints at a pivot higher as well for consumer spending.

Consensus Outlook
Forecasters see slight moderation to 131.7 for the September consumer confidence index which jumped very sharply to 133.4 in August which was the strongest reading since October 2000. Jobs-hard-to-get were very low in the August report and accurately predicted that month's strong employment report.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer confidence and retail sales generally move in tandem but not necessarily each and every month. Note that consumer assessments of employment conditions are heavily weighted in the consumer confidence index.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/273/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/27
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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