2018 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 6/21/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level34.4 28.0 20.0  to 33.1 19.9 

Highlights
Momentum is thankfully easing in the Philly Fed's manufacturing sample which had been reporting among the very strongest growth, and perhaps unsustainably strong, in 50 years of data. At 19.9, the general business conditions index is very healthy but is down 14.5 points in June.

New orders are very strong but at 17.9 are down nearly 23 points from May. Backlogs edged lower for the first time since January as the sample keeps shipments cranked up at a very active 28.7. The sample continues to find hands to do the work with employment up slightly to 30.4 and 3 tenths shy of the all time record set in October last year.

It's hard to assess what the results say for the factory sector as a whole, perhaps that it may be slowing this month but the rise for shipments will mask much of the effect. The nation's factory sector is having a very good year and looks, tariff risks aside, to be a leading contributor to the 2018 economy.

Consensus Outlook
Very slight cooling is the consensus for June's Philly Fed report which in May posted a 45-year high for new orders. This report has been coming in at or above Econoday's high estimates in results that hint at overheating strength for this sample. The consensus for June is 28.0 vs May's 34.4.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/195/176/217/198/169/2010/1811/1512/20
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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