2018 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 9/20/2018 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level11.9 19.6 13.9  to 21.1 22.9 

Highlights
Accelerating pressure on nearly everything but prices headliines a very strong Philly Fed report for September where the general business conditions index surged 11.0 points to a 22.9 level that tops Econoday's forecast range. New orders highlight the data, jumping 11.5 points to 21.4 with unfilled orders rising 7.0 points to 12.6. Shipments rose by 3.0 points to 19.6 with employment up 3.3 points to 17.6.

The sample's available capacity may be getting tested as delivery times rose 4.7 points to 11.1 as the workweek climbed 3.9 points to 14.6. Inventories contracted in the month, down a very steep 18.9 points to minus 3.5 in a draw that, judging by the strength of orders and shipments, is unwanted and may reflect the delays in deliveries and also production limitations.

Yet despite capacity issues, prices are actually moderating this month with input prices down 15.4 points to a still elevated 39.6 and with selling prices down 13.6 points to 19.6.

The price data suggest that capacity and tariff issues are not, at least right now, creating significant dislocations. Six-month price data also moderated in the month. Today's report is unusually favorable, belying the Federal Reserve's assessment that growth in the nation's manufacturing sector is no more than moderate.

Consensus Outlook
Re-acceleration to 19.6 is the consensus for September's Philly Fed index which slowed very sharply in August to 11.9 and near a 2-year low. This index first slowed sharply in June, ending what had been a long run of exceptional growth rates.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey offers advance indications on the industrial production index. The survey is reported in the third week of the month and has a lead time of nearly three weeks on industrial production.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/154/195/176/217/198/169/2010/1811/1512/20
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


powered by  [Econoday]