2018 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget  
Released On 10/15/2018 2:00:00 PM For Sep, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-214.1 B$77.5 B$57.0 B to $93.0 B$119.1 B

Highlights
The Treasury posted a larger-than-expected surplus of $119.1 billion in September to trim the fiscal-full-year deficit to $779.0 billion which, September's surplus notwithstanding, is 17.0 percent larger than the fiscal-year 2017 deficit.

Government outlays totaled $4.108 trillion in fiscal-year 2018 for a 3.2 percent increase from the prior fiscal year. Details here include a 4.5 percent increase in Medicare spending to $987.8 billion, a 5.3 percent increase in defense spending to $664.7 billion, and a 24 percent increase in net interest expense to $324.7 billion. The latter reflects the higher cost to fund the government's increased deficit.

Receipts in the fiscal year totaled $3.239 trillion for a 0.4 percent increase from the prior year. In a fiscal year that saw major tax cuts beginning in January this year, individual tax receipts rose 6.1 percent to $1.684 trillion with corporate tax receipts down 31 percent to $204.7 billion. Custom duties, boosted by tariffs, rose 19.4 percent to $41.3 billion.

Consensus Outlook
Individual tax receipts are up, corporate tax receipts are down and spending on Medicare and defense is on the rise. Eleven months into the government's fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit to August, at $898.1 billion, was 33 percent deeper than the prior year. Econoday's consensus for the September Treasury statement is a monthly surplus of $77.5 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance reflect Federal policy on spending and taxation. The government's fiscal year begins in October.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/123/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1511/1312/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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