2018 Economic Calendar
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International Trade in Goods  
Released On 3/28/2018 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-74.4 B$-75.3 B$-74.0 B$-76.4 B to $-73.0 B$-75.4 B
Exports % change-2.2 %-2.4 %2.2 %
Imports % change-0.5 %-0.2 %1.4 %

The nation's trade deficit in goods failed to improve in February, at a very steep $75.4 billion which is nearly $1.5 billion deeper than Econoday's consensus and little changed from January's revised $75.3 billion. Imports rose 1.4 percent in the month with foods rising sharply along with imports of capital goods and industrial supplies as well. Imports of vehicles rose sizably but not consumer goods which posted only a small gain.

Exports are actually strong in this report, up 2.2 percent with gains centered in vehicles, which are usually a weak category, and also capital goods which is the nation's strength. Exports of consumer goods, a major weakness, declined sharply after bouncing higher in January.

Based on two months of data, net exports won't be helping first-quarter GDP though the negative pull may be offset by a rising inventory build, data for which were also released this morning.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit in February is expected to narrow to a consensus $74.0 vs $75.3 billion in December (revised from an initial $74.4 billion). Exports weakened in January, including declines for capital goods and industrial supplies to open the first-quarter trade balance on a negative note. Also released with the report will be advance February data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, will also be inputs into first-quarter GDP.

The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/273/284/265/306/277/268/289/2710/2511/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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