2018 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

International Trade in Goods  
Released On 6/27/2018 8:30:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-68.2 B$-67.3 B$-68.8 B$-69.8 B to $-65.0 B$-64.8 B
Exports % change-0.5 %0.2 %2.1 %
Imports % change-0.5 %-0.4 %0.2 %

Highlights
Forget about tariffs and trade wars. Exports in May surged a convincing 2.1 percent to pull down the nation's goods deficit to a much lower-than-expected $64.8 billion in May. The results will add further to second-quarter GDP forecasts where high-end estimates were already approaching 5 percent.

The export gain is led by a 12.8 percent monthly jump in foods & feeds and includes a 3.7 percent gain for capital goods which are the nation's strongest exports. And consumer goods also rose, up 3.2 percent. The overall gain comes despite a 3.1 percent decline in industrial supplies, a component where swings in oil prices dominate.

Imports were nearly neutral in May, up only 0.2 percent following a 0.4 percent decline in April. Auto imports fell 1.2 percent in the month with consumer imports, which is the Achilles heel of U.S. trade, down 1.0 percent. Imports of industrial supplies, again reflecting oil prices, fell 0.7 percent. A category that shows a gain, and here perhaps a welcome one pointing to rising business investment, is imports of capital goods which jumped 3.4 percent.

This is a very healthy report and it may offer a signpost of the nation's trade performance going into a summer of cross-border discontent.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit is expected to widen to a consensus $68.8 billion in May vs $67.3 billion in March (revised from an initial $68.2 billion). May's report will update progress on second-quarter net exports and offer the latest on the bilateral deficit with China.

Definition
The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/273/284/265/306/277/268/289/2710/2511/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


powered by  [Econoday]