2018 Economic Calendar
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International Trade in Goods  
Released On 9/27/2018 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-72.2 B$-72.1 B$-70.8 B$-72.2 B to $-69.0 B$-75.8 B
Exports % change-1.7 %-1.6 %-1.6 %
Imports % change0.9 %0.7 %

Amid the unfolding of tariff effects, exports are moving in the wrong direction and look to be a big negative for third-quarter GDP. The nation's trade deficit in goods was a whopping $75.8 billion in August with exports down 1.6 percent for a second straight month. Imports are also a negative for the trade balance, up 0.7 percent following a 0.9 price rise in July.

Exports of agricultural products plunged 9.5 percent in August to $11.9 billion which is on top of a 6.3 percent monthly drop in July. Exports of industrial supplies were also very weak, down 5.9 percent to $43.8 billion, while exports of vehicles fell 2.8 percent to $12.7 billion. These offset a really good showing for consumer goods which rose 10.3 percent to $17.6 billion. Capital goods, which are the nation's strongest exports, rose 0.3 percent to $46.5 billion.

The import side shows a 3.2 percent rise in vehicles to $31.7 billion with consumer goods, which is the nation's sorest point for trade, up 1.3 percent to $53.3 billion. Imports of capital goods fell 0.9 percent to $57.6 billion which is a positive for the trade balance but a negative for business investment. Imports of agricultural products fell 1.2 percent to $12.3 billion.

The monthly goods deficit has been larger but not by much, eclipsed only by $76.0 billion in February this year. The monthly average so far in the third quarter is $74.0 billion vs $67.6 billion in the second quarter -- this points to a major drag for net exports in the GDP report, one offset however by a strong build underway for inventories in other data released this morning. Country balances aren't posted with the advance report but will follow with next week's international trade report that will also include services.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit is expected to narrow to a consensus $70.8 billion in August vs $72.1 billion in July (revised from an initial $72.2 billion). The results will update progress on third-quarter net exports which were very favorable in the second quarter.

The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/273/284/265/306/277/268/289/2710/2511/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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