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S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  
Released On 7/31/2018 9:00:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M0.2 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.6 %0.2 %
20-city, NSA - M/M0.8 %0.9 %0.8 %0.7 % to 0.9 %0.7 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr6.6 %6.7 %6.6 %6.4 % to 6.9 %6.5 %

Highlights
Weakness in the major cities in the Northeast and Midwest is offsetting price strength in the West making for a soft 0.2 percent rise in the Case-Shiller 20-city adjusted index for May, a result that comes in at the bottom of Econoday's consensus range.

Home prices in New York City fell 0.3 percent in the month with Detroit down 0.2 percent. Washington DC was unchanged with Chicago up only 0.1 percent. At the opposite end, Seattle continues its 1 percent monthly clips, rising 1.4 percent in May. Phoenix has also been very strong, up 0.8 percent in the month with San Francisco up 0.5 percent.

Year-on-year rates are led by Seattle at 13.6 percent with Las Vegas at 12.6 percent and San Francisco at 10.9 percent. These rates raise questions whether these are markets are in the bubble zone. On the bottom end are Washington DC at 3.1 percent, Chicago at 3.3 percent, and New York at 4.2 percent.

Total year-on-year prices came in at 6.5 percent, down 2 tenths from a revised April and below Econoday's consensus which is also the result for the monthly unadjusted gain at 0.7 percent.

Despite the strength in the West, both this report and the FHFA house price index have visibly slowed the last several reports, in line with what has proven, in contrast to all the strength in the labor market and the health in consumer spending, to be a downshift in this year's home sales.

Consensus Outlook
Home-price appreciation appears to have tangibly slowed during the Spring selling season. FHFA house prices have been flat while Case-Shiller data slowed in April. Moderate strength is the call for Case-Shiller data in May where the consensus gain for the 20-city adjusted index is 0.3 percent vs only 0.2 percent in April with the unadjusted year-on-year rate seen holding at April's 6.6 percent. The consensus for unadjusted monthly growth, reflecting the relative price strength of May compared with other months of the year, is 0.8 percent.

Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions using a three-month moving average. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is, however, limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/273/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/26
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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