2018 Economic Calendar
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PMI Composite FLASH  
Released On 6/22/2018 9:45:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite – Level55.7 56.3 54.0  to 57.0 56.0 
Manufacturing – Level56.6 56.5 55.3  to 56.8 54.6 
Services — Level55.7 56.2 54.0  to 57.2 56.5 

Early indications of factory slowing in June, likely related to tariffs, are beginning to appear. Yesterday's Philly Fed report slowed to a year-and-a-half low with today's manufacturing PMI falling to a 7-month low at 54.6. The PMI report cites a "clear loss of momentum" with new orders slipping and with export sales at a 2-year low. Production in this sample is also down though the slowing isn't easing congestion in the supply chain as delivery times deteriorated the most in 11 years. A shortage of truckers tied to tighter regulations is cited. Optimism on the outlook is also sinking, down at year-and-a-half lows.

Holding up June's composite, which rose slightly to 56.0, is a bounce higher for the services PMI to 56.5. The service sample reports strength in new orders and jobs as well however as a nearly 5-year high for input costs. The sample cites higher prices for fuel, wages, and also steel-related items. Turning back to manufacturing, steel costs are widely cited and appear to be getting passed through as selling-price traction for the last two months is at a 7-year high.

This report together with Philly offer the first hints of possible tariff effects, and they appear to be negative for growth and also inflationary. The Dallas and Richmond manufacturing reports will be out on Monday and Tuesday of next week respectively and will be closely watched for any new evidence.

Consensus Outlook
Moderate-to-strong growth has been the signal from the PMIs with services having shown reacceleration in May. The flash June consensus for the PMI composite is 56.3 with PMI manufacturing seen at 56.5 and PMI services at 56.2.

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by Markit.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/242/213/224/235/236/227/248/239/2110/2411/23
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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