November 30, 2017
Though barely, core inflation is moving forward and appears certain to seal a rate hike at the December FOMC. Up 0.2 percent in November, the core PCE price index is up 1.4 percent on the year, tilting higher but still well short of the Fed's 2 percent goal. Other data in the personal income & outlays report were likewise lukewarm with wages & salaries up only 0.3 percent in the month as was consumer spending. A clear positive in the session was another very low jobless claims report that continues to signal full employment for the economy.
However modest-to-moderate the economy may be as described by yesterday's Beige Book, gains in the stock market are anything but moderate. The Dow surged 1.4 percent today to 24,272 for a year-on-year gain that stands at 22.8 percent. Money continues to back out of the Treasury market where the 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 2.42 percent.