2018 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 6/25/2018 8:30:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.34 0.42 0.37 0.30  to 0.65 -0.15 
3 Month Moving Average0.46 0.48 0.18 

Highlights
Manufacturing's unusual decline in May pulled the national activity index, at minus 0.15, into the negative column for the first time since January this year. The 3-month average is still in the plus column though the level, at 0.18, is also the lowest since January.

Yet the results look skewed. Production indicators pulled the index down 0.29 points which ultimately reflects a sharp downturn in factory hours during the month, but this decline is tied to a fire at an auto supplier that disrupted the supply chain in the auto sector. Other factory indicators were mostly positive including yet another month of standout strength for ISM new orders.

Employment indicators contributed 0.13 to May's index, up slightly from 0.12 in April and a reminder of the economy's fundamental strength. Despite employment, consumer & housing indicators remain slightly in the negative column, at minus 0.04 in May vs minus 0.03 in April. A decline in housing permits was a negative for May. The index's fourth component -- sales, orders, inventories -- made a contribution of 0.05 to May, up from no contribution (zero) in April.

Consensus Outlook
After slowing at the outset of the year, the national activity index is back at its expansion best, posting 0.34 in April and 0.32 in March to indicate well above average growth. Though employment will give a boost to May, weakness in industrial production may hold the index back. Consensus for May is a further gain to 0.37.

Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/222/263/264/235/216/257/238/279/2410/2211/2612/24
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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