2018 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 8/27/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.43 0.48 0.38 0.35  to 0.40 0.13 
3 Month Moving Average0.16 0.20 0.05 

The month of July proved less strong than expected based on the national activity index which managed only a 0.13 rise vs Econoday's consensus for 0.38. Production, one of four main components in the report, contributed only 0.05 to the index vs 0.45 in June (a month, however, that was skewed higher by a reversal of supply disruptions in the auto sector following a fire in May at a major auto parts supplier).

Employment, another component, was actually positive in July, contributing 0.12 vs June's 0.03. Sales, orders & inventories contributed 0.03 vs June's 0.06 with personal consumption & housing, reflecting weakness in the former that offset slight improvement in housing, at a negative 0.07 contribution vs minus 0.06 in June.

The slowing in production following a one-time spike in June is distorting the overall reading for July downward, yet the weakness in the personal consumption & housing component is a negative to watch.

Consensus Outlook
July looks like it will prove another solid month for the national activity index. Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 in July with the unemployment rate coming down 1 tenth to 3.9 percent. Industrial production inched only 0.1 percent higher though manufacturing production was a bit stronger as were building permits. Econoday's consensus for the index is 0.38 vs a very strong 0.43 in June.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/222/263/264/235/216/257/238/279/2410/2211/2612/24
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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