July 5, 2018
Convincing economic strength in June is the signal from the services PMI as well as ISM's non-manufacturing report which posted both broad and solid growth and, in a plus for ISM's sample, a bit of easing in capacity stress as well. The labor signal from the PMI report is very positive but, in contrast, a cooling in employment growth is the indication from ISM as well as ADP whose payroll forecast was also released this morning. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June were also released and showed concern over wage-push inflation and also a widening discussion of tariff risks and the effects of fiscal policy.
The Dow rose 0.7 percent to 24,331 after the U.S. administration appeared to tone down threats of European auto tariffs. Oil slipped about $1 to just over $73 while gold edged higher toward $1,260. Rates and the dollar were little changed.