2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index 
Released On 1/5/2011 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2010
  PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.0 56.0 55.0  to 57.0 57.1 

Highlights
The non-manufacturing economy, with the unfortunate exception of employment, is really picking up steam. The ISM's index rose to 57.1, up more than two points from November for a new recovery best. New orders show a rare plus 60 reading, at 63.0 for a more than five point jump and also a recovery best. Business activity, which includes quoting activity, jumped 6-1/2 points to a recovery-best 63.5.

Now the bad news. Job gains are minimal according to the ISM's sample which is not validating this morning's big jump in ADP's data. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index slowed by more than two points to a 50.5 level that indicates very little month-to-month improvement.

The nation's businesses, at least based on the ISM's sample of roughly 350 companies, continue to do more with less. Today's report points to strong growth for the economy that will, hopefully sooner than later, trigger new hirings. There's little initial reaction to this report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in November rose seven tenths to 55.0, the highest reading in six months and reflecting strong monthly gains for new orders and employment. The latter, posting at 52.7, is at its strongest level of the recovery. The composite should be well into positive territory in December as the new orders index improved to 57.7 from 56.7 in October.

Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy—indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly. Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Released Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/46/37/68/39/610/511/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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