2011 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence 
Released On 9/27/2011 9:00:00 AM For Sep, 2011
  PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level44.5 46.4 46.5 42.0  to 48.0 45.4 

Highlights
Consumers say current economic conditions are deteriorating in what is a bad sign for the September employment report. Fifty percent of the Conference Board's sample say jobs are currently hard to get which is up a tangible 1.5 percentage points from August and compares with 44.8 percent in July and 43.2 percent June. This trend may be signaling that the jobs market is pivoting lower. The overall consumer confidence index edged fractionally higher to 45.4 from August's revised 45.2.

There are positives in today's report including easing pessimism over the six-month outlook which is reflected in a 1.6 point gain for expectations which is the leading component for the overall index. Strength among the expectations components is led by employment where, in contrast to the current assessment of the jobs market, pessimism is easing. Pessimism on future business conditions also eased though pessimism over income expectations remains heavy. A clear positive in today's report is a two tenths downtick in one-year inflation expectations to 5.7 percent.

Weekly data on initial jobless claims have been trending slightly higher compared to August which, together with the jobs hard to get reading in this report, point to trouble for the September employment report. Remember, the August employment report was very weak showing no change in payrolls and an uptick in the unemployment rate. Markets are showing little initial reaction to today's report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in August fell a very steep 14.7 points to 44.5 for the lowest reading since April 2009. Weakness was concentrated heavily in the expectations index, down a huge 23.0 points to 51.9, which is also at its lowest level since April 2009. The present situation component, at 33.3 for a 2.4 point loss, showed less deterioration though the assessment of the current jobs market did weaken noticeably.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month.

The Conference Board changed its polling company in 2010. The current polling company is Nielsen Co. with the former being TNS Inc. The switchover reference month for the new data is November 2010. Because of the change in the polling service (even though the questions in the questionnaire are the same) the data are not completely consistent and November 2010 should be considered a break in the series. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Released Schedule
Released On: 1/252/223/294/265/316/287/268/309/2710/2511/2912/27
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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