Consumer sentiment is edging further down to new 2012 lows, at 73.2 for the final June reading which, given a 74.1 reading at mid-month, points to a low 72 reading for the final two weeks. The index opened the year at 75.0.
Weakness is apparent in both expectations, down 1.1 points to 67.8, and in currents conditions which is 6 tenths lower to 81.5. A new reading for the report, the 12-month outlook, is definitely on the decline, down 3 points from mid-month to 72 which is down 12 points from May.
Inflation expectations edged 1 tenth higher from mid-month for both the 1- and 5-year outlooks, at 3.1 and 2.8 percent respectively. But these readings, especially the 1-year, are well down from the early spring and are in line with easing gas prices.
Today's consumer sentiment report makes for three strikes this morning for US data with personal income & spending and the Chicago PMI also signaling that conditions are turning flat. The Dow, despite the weakness in today's data, is holding strong gains tied to European policy moves.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in June fell 5.2 points to 74.1, putting the index at a 2012 low. The latest sentiment report was for the first two weeks of this month and it showed sharp weakness in expectations, down 5.4 points to 68.9 and another 2012 low, and nearly as sharp weakness in current conditions, down 5.1 points to 82.1 which is yet another low for this year.