2012 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence 
Released On 6/26/2012 9:00:00 AM For Jun, 2012
  PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level64.9 64.4 63.5 58.0  to 66.3 62.0 

Highlights
The drop underway in gas prices may be easing inflation expectations but it isn't giving much of a boost at all to consumer confidence which, in the lowest reading since January, fell 2.4 points in June to 62.0 (May revised five tenths lower to 64.4). This is the fourth straight decline for the longest losing streak of the recovery. Weakness is centered in the consumer's view of the future with substantially more, 16.2 percent vs 12.9 percent in May, saying business conditions will worsen over the next six months. That's a big change for this reading. Fewer consumers see job availability improving over the next months and fewer see an increase ahead for their income. This last reading is a big negative for retailers which may begin to plan for less business during the holiday season.

The assessment of current conditions is steady and soft though there is specific weakness in the jobs currently hard to get question, at 41.5 percent vs last month's 40.9 percent in a reading that points to another month of trouble for payroll employment and the unemployment rate.

There's no fire right now in the consumer who sees no significant improvement ahead, likely the result at least in part from the troubles in Europe and the slowing in China both of which are hurting US business. A note on inflation expectations which fell three tenths to 5.3 percent which is the lowest reading of the year. The Dow is little changed though the weakness in this report may weigh on the market through the course of the session.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in May fell 3.8 points to 64.9 from a downwardly revised 68.7 in April. The expectations component of consumer confidence declined to 77.6 from April's 80.4, showing the least optimism since January. The assessment of the present situation index also dropped, to 45.9 from 51.2.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month.

The Conference Board changed its polling company in 2010. The current polling company is Nielsen Co. with the former being TNS Inc. The switchover reference month for the new data is November 2010. Because of the change in the polling service (even though the questions in the questionnaire are the same) the data are not completely consistent and November 2010 should be considered a break in the series. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Released Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/274/245/296/267/318/289/2511/111/2712/27
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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