Econoday RSS Generator mam.econoday.com/getrss.asp?cust=mam Econoday Economic News en webmaster@econoday.com ©2011 Econoday Sat, 25 May 2013 12:58:00 GMT http://www.econoday.com/graphics/nav/home_big3.jpg http://www.econoday.com/ Econoday Highlights
Not much is expected from durable goods so even slight weakness, let alone a gain, could fire up the bulls. ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 GMT Econoday Highlights
Early effects of the Japanese supply crunch are seen in April durable goods data that show wide and deep declines across new orders and shipments. Yet rising backlog is an important strength that will help manufacturers keep up production during the disruption. The data were no surprise and didn't hold back the Dow which ended three straight losing sessions with a small gain to 12,394. Oil firmed to $101 while gold held steady at $1,525.
]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 GMT Econoday ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 GMT Econoday PreviousActualPurchase Index - W/W Change-3.2 %1.5 %Refinance Index - W/W Change13.2 %0.9 %Composite Index - W/W Change7.8 %1.1 %
Highlights
The volume of mortgage applications for home purchases rose 1.5 percent in the May 20 week, partially reversing the prior week's 3.2 percent decline. Purchase applications jumped 6.7 percent in the first week of May, a month that so far looks to show a gain compared with April in what would be good news for the housing sector. Applications for refinancing rose 0.9 percent reflecting favorable mortgage rates which however rose in the week, up nine basis points for 30-year loans to 4.69 percent. ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 11:00:00 GMT Econoday PreviousConsensusConsensus RangeActualNew Orders - M/M change2.5 %-3.0 %-5.7 % to 0.5 %-3.6 %New Orders - Yr/Yr Change10.5 %5.3 %Ex-transportation - M/M1.3 %-1.5 %Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr6.1 %6.7 %
Highlights
Durables orders fell back in April as overall new factory orders for durables declined 3.6 percent, following a revised 4.4 percent jump in March (previously estimated at up 4.1 percent). April's decrease was worse than the median forecast for a 3.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, new orders slipped 1.5 percent, following a 2.5 percent rise in March. Weakness in the latest month was broad-based but also followed a broad-based jump in March. This series is living up to its reputation as one of the most volatile monthly data series.

Weakness in the latest month was led by transportation equipment which dropped a monthly 9.5 percent in April after a 10.3 percent boost the month before. By subcomponents for April, nondefense aircraft plunged 30.0 percent (essentially a fall in Boeing orders); defense aircraft & parts decreased 8.9 percent; and motor vehicles declined 4.5 percent. The auto industry apparently has been harder hit than initially believed by parts shortages due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Motor vehicle orders were up 6.6 percent in March and sales have continued at healthy levels through April.

Outside of transportation, weakness was widespread. Declines were seen in primary metals, down 1.6 percent; fabricated metals, down 1.1 percent; machinery, down 3.4 percent; electrical equipment, down 4.9 percent; and "other" durables, down 1.0 percent. Computers & electronics orders rose 0.7 percent.

Business investment in equipment has been volatile also. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in April fell back 2.6 percent, following a 5.4 percent jump the month before. Shipments for this series slipped 1.7 percent, following a 3.7 percent rise in March.

Clearly, the latest durables report is disappointing but not so much in the context of its volatility and the strong gain in March. Also, Boeing orders certainly will rebound as will auto orders once supply disruptions ease. While there is some uncertainty, given overall demand and low inventories, durables orders and production are more likely than not to pick up strength in coming months.
]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 12:30:00 GMT Econoday PreviousActualM/M change-1.6 %-0.3 %Y/Y change-5.7 %-5.8 %
Highlights
The recent downtrend in house prices continues as the FHFA purchase only house price index dipped another 0.3 percent in March, following a decrease of 1.5 percent in February. This index has declined for five months in a row after scattered improvement in 2009.

On a year-on-year basis, the FHFA HPI is down 5.8 percent, compared to down 5.5 percent in February.

For the nine Census Divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes for month-ago March ranged from minus 2.0 percent in the South Atlantic Division to plus 2.0 percent in the West South Division. Five of the nine Census Divisions declined in March. On a year-ago basis, the region showing the greatest weakness is the Mountain Division, down by 9.5 percent, followed by Pacific, down 8.5 percent, and South Atlantic, down 8.4 percent.

Overall, home prices continue to suffer from sluggish demand and heavy supply.

The next update on home prices is with the Case-Shiller home price index out on Tuesday, May 31.

]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 14:00:00 GMT Econoday PreviousActualCrude oil inventories (weekly change)0.0 M barrels0.6 M barrelsGasoline (weekly change)0.1 M barrels3.8 M barrelsDistillates (weekly change)-1.2 M barrels-2.0 M barrels
Highlights
Lots of supply and soft demand is this week's theme for petroleum inventories where gasoline takes the headline with a big counter-seasonal 3.8 million barrel build in the May 20 week. Domestic refineries increased production in the week operating at 86.3 percent of capacity for the highest level since early January. Imports of gasoline are also a factor in the build, at 1.4 million barrels per day for the highest level since August. Yet demand for gasoline, indicated here by volume supplied to wholesalers, is down a year-on-year 2.1 percent for the ninth straight negative reading.

Inventories of oil rose 0.6 million barrels in the week reflecting high imports of 9.2 million barrels per day that more than offset the increased inputs into refineries. In the only draw of the week, distillate inventories fell 2.0 million barrels despite increased distillate output and despite a 3.9 percent year-on-year decline in demand which is the weakest reading in more than a year.

The good news for consumers in this report is that high supply and low demand point to a scaling back for gasoline prices. Oil prices fell in initial reaction to the report but only briefly and are holding between $99 and $100 for West Texas Intermediate. ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 14:30:00 GMT Econoday ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 17:00:00 GMT Econoday PreviousActualBid/Cover2.77 3.20 Coupon Rate2.000% 1.750% Total Amount$35 B $35 B Yield Awarded2.124% 1.813% 
Highlights
Demand for Treasuries is rising following an exceptionally strong $35 billion 5-year note auction where coverage of 3.20 is the best in 10 years of available data. At 1.813 percent, the auction stopped out two basis points below the one o'clock bid. A low dealer share of 44 percent offers confirmation of customer demand. These results will raise expectations for strength in tomorrow's $29 billion auction of 7-year notes. ]]> info@econoday.com Wed, 25 May 2011 17:00:00 GMT