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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/26/06 For Sep 2006 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Confidence is rising and inflation expectations are easing, two early positive signs that lower gas prices are boosting spirits. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.5 in September from 100.2 in August, while 12-month inflation expectations fell 6 tenths to 4.9 percent. The dollar rose firmly while Treasuries fell back in flattening trade in immediate reaction to the headlines.
The Conference Board doesn't ask specific questions about special topics such as gas prices. Instead it asks set questions on job the market, income prospects, business conditions, buying plans, and inflation. It's the questions on the job market that are closely watched for an indication on monthly employment growth, and these were mostly positive. Those saying jobs are currently plentiful rose a sharp 1.5 percentage points to 25.9 percent, but those who said they are hard to get also rose, up 2 tenths to 21.3 percent. The six-month outlook on jobs was more positive.
Higher confidence, no doubt the result of falling gas prices, raises the chance, or perhaps the risk from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, of new strength in consumer spending.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 99.6 in August from 107.0 in July. Weakness was largely related to consumer assessment of the jobs market which slipped. In prior months, higher oil prices were keeping confidence down. We should see some improvement related to the recent drop in oil prices. If not, that would be a big concern.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for Sep. 06: 101.0
Range: 98.0 to 104.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
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