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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/31/06 For Oct 2006 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Consumer confidence showed surprisingly little movement in October despite gains in the stock market and of course low gasoline prices. The Conference Board's index dipped slightly to 105.4 vs. a 105.9 reading in September that was revised 1.4 percentage points higher. A year ago the index, hit by the hurricane-induced spike in gas prices, was 85.2.
October's reading on the present situation, which makes up 40 percent of the main index, actually fell back to 124.7 vs. 128.3. And the reading on expectations, which makes up the other 60 percent, showed only a mild rise at most, of 1.6 percentage points to 92.6.
Other readings included no change in inflation expectations at 4.9 percent, perhaps a surprise given gas prices. Jobs hard to get showed less confidence in the labor market, at 22.0 percent vs. September's 20.9 percent. Those saying jobs are plentiful fell 4 tenths to 25.8.
Bonds rose and the dollar slipped in reaction to the data, which were released with a Chicago purchasers' report that also indicates economic softness. Consumer confidence isn't the most important set of economic data but today's report does fall in line with other indications of economic softening but still stubbornly firm inflation expectations.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.5 in September from 100.2 in August, likely as a result of lower gasoline prices. Oil prices have since fallen further, net, and the stock market has picked up new upward momentum. How much of these factors will show up in consumer confidence keeping the economy on a moderate growth path? Also, will lower gasoline prices lower inflation expectations? In the September report, the 12-month inflation expectations fell 6 tenths to 4.9 percent. The Fed continues to place importance on not losing control over inflation expectations.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for October 06: 108.0
Range: 104.5 to 110.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month. |
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