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Consumer Credit
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Definition
The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
5/5/06
For
Mar 2006 |
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Consumer Credit, M/M change
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| Actual |
$2.5B
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| Consensus |
$4.0B
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| Consensus Range |
$2.0B
to
$5.0B
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| Previous |
$
3.3
B
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Highlights
Consumer credit rose a smaller-than-expected $2.5 billion in March, offset by a $1.2 billion upward revision to February that now shows a gain of $4.5 billion. Revolving credit slipped $0.1 billion in March despite strong non-auto retail sales data. Non-revolving credit, reflecting soft vehicle sales in the month, rose $2.7 billion vs. a gain of $4.4 billion in February. Rising wage gains, evident this week in average hourly earnings for April and first-quarter unit labor costs, may begin to offer a new source of spending for consumers.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer installment credit increased $3.3 billion in February after growing more rapidly in January. But February sales were down from the robust January pace. While retail sales were not quite so robust in March as they were in January, they were certainly an improvement over February. This could contribute to consumer credit growth, although motor vehicle sales fell modestly in March.
Consumer Credit Consensus Forecast for Mar 06: $4 billion Range: $2 to $5 billion
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Trends
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The debt-to-income ratio shows how indebted consumers are relative to income. A rising ratio indicates that consumers are taking on greater debt burdens with respect to income growth. In a growing economy, this may not be dangerous. However, indebtedness could quickly become a problem if income and employment conditions turn around. The yearly change in debt outstanding shows yearly trends in debt growth and tends to be less volatile than the monthly change. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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