2008 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Sentiment (p)
Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey.  Why Investors Care

Released on 6/15/07 For Jun 2007
Sentiment Index - Level
 Actual 83.7  
 Consensus 87.7  
 Consensus Range 86.9  to  90.0  
 Previous 88.7  

Highlights
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell back in early June, to 83.7 vs. 88.3 in May. High gas prices no doubt took a bite out of the reading and, more importantly, they raised 12-month inflation expectations two tenths to 3.5 percent. The rise in inflation expectations will be a concern for Federal Reserve officials who have been citing pressure in this particular reading. A partial offset is a 1 tenth downward tick in five-year inflation expectations to 3.0 percent.

Back to sentiment which showed even declines between the two components of expectations and current conditions. But expectations continue to lag current conditions in both this and the Conference Board's report in readings that point to a topping if not declines in overall confidence in the months ahead.

There was little initial reaction to the report which may yet trump this morning's more substantial data. Declining confidence along with rising price expectations may be a wash for the Treasury market but they may prove a negative for the dollar and the stock market through the session.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index was revised down to 88.3 for May from the mid-month estimate of 88.7. This still was improvement from the April final figure of 87.1.

Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary June 07: 87.7
Range: 86.9 to 90.0
Trends
[Chart] Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/19 2/16 3/16 4/13 5/18 6/15 7/13 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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