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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/12/07 For Oct 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
A firm jobs market is no more than slowing slippage in consumer spirits. Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 82.0 in mid-October vs. 83.4 for final September. The latest reading is the lowest since August last year. Treasuries firmed and the dollar softened in immediate to the results.
The worst of it is in expectations, which fell 2.5 points to 71.6, also the lowest reading since August 2006. Troubles in the credit market and sagging home values are taking their toll.
High gas prices are also taking a toll though not on inflation expectations, which fell 1 tenth for 1-year expectations to 3.0 percent and 1 tenth for 5-year expectations to 2.9 percent. Today's PPI showed definite signs of pressure, but these inflation numbers will prove very comforting to Federal Reserve officials who often highlight the need to keep inflation expectations anchored.
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index in September index was unchanged from August at 83.4. This indicator will get more attention than usual as the markets will be looking to see if the consumer has shaken off credit crunch worries. And the Fed will be watching the inflation expectations numbers to see if the direction is improving or not. Twelve-month inflation expectations dipped back 1 tenth to 3.1 percent with five-year expectations unchanged at 2.9 percent. Both of these series are known to stay well above actual inflation so Fed officials tend to watch the changes in expectations more than the actual rates.
Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary October 07: 84.0
Range: 83.0 to 85.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.) |
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