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ISM Non-Mfg Survey
Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Financial market players monitor the business activity index, because a composite index, like its manufacturing cousin, is not compiled by the ISM. Why Investors Care

Released on 2/3/06 For Jan 2006
Business Activity Index, Level
 Actual 56.8  
 Consensus 59.7  
 Consensus Range 57.5  to  61.0  
 Previous 61.0  

Highlights
The ISM non-manufacturing index dipped sharply in January, down to 56.8 from 61.0 in December. The index has trended narrowly around 60 for the past year-and-a-half or so, a fact that may heighten the importance of the reading.

New orders, which point to future activity, fell back in line with the overall index, at 56.0 vs. 62.2. Order backlogs also fell back to 52.5 vs. 54.0. Another bad sign was a fall in employment to 51.1 from 56.9. It's important to note that readings over 50 indicate that more respondents are reporting month-to-month increases than decreases, a fact that highlights the underlying strength of the levels despite January's dip.

A little strength may be evident in inventories which came in at 55.0 vs. 56.0 in December. Ralph Kauffman, who heads the survey, said at a press conference this morning that respondents, who sometimes offer anecdotal commentary, are increasing inventories in anticipation of strong demand ahead.

Prices paid was unchanged at 67.2. The prices index in ISM's manufacturing report on Wednesday edged higher to a similar reading. The gains reflect high energy and raw material costs and possibly cost pass through as well.

Financial markets showed no significant reaction to the data, which of course are lost in the shadow of the morning's strong jobs data. Though month-to-month volatility is common for indicators and will limit the impact of today's report, the decline does correspond with a similar dip underway in the ISM's manufacturing index and may in retrospect mark a moderate downshift to slowing rates of growth.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The business activity index from the ISM non-manufacturing rose 1.7 percentage points in December to 61 (based on the revised seasonally adjusted figures reported by the ISM last week). The level of this index is not quite as high as it was in August 2005, but generally remains healthy.

Business activity index Consensus Forecast for Jan 06: 59.7
Range: 57.5 to 61
Trends
[Chart] The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2006 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/5 2/3 3/3 4/5 5/3 6/5 7/6 8/3 9/6 10/4 11/3 12/5
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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