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ISM Non-Mfg Survey
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Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Financial market players monitor the business activity index, because a composite index, like its manufacturing cousin, is not compiled by the ISM. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
11/3/06
For
Oct 2006 |
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Business Activity Index, Level
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| Actual |
57.1
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| Consensus |
55.0
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| Consensus Range |
52.4
to
56.0
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| Previous |
52.9
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Highlights
The pace of the nation's non-manufacturing sector picked back up in October, according to the Institute For Supply Management's business activity index which jumped to 57.1 from 52.9. The gain reflects strength in the prior's month new orders index, which jumped nearly five points in September though it edged back just slightly in October to a still solid 56.5. Backlog orders also edged lower but still showed growth with a plus-50 reading of 51.5 vs. 53.0 in September.
Employment, a big topic today following this morning's rattling strength in the jobs report, showed softness, to 51.0 vs. 53.6. The reading compares closely with Wednesday's ISM manufacturing report that showed a similar job reading of 50.8.
Inventories, strength of which was one of the big headlines in the manufacturing report, showed rising levels, at 53.0 vs. 50.5. Inventory sentiment continued its upward climb, up 1 percentage point to 64.5 to indicate that more respondents are concerned that their inventories are too high.
The rise in inventories, given strength in orders, may or may not indicate slowing conditions, an uncertain reading similar to prices paid which fell to 51.9 from 56.7. Prices also fell sharply in the manufacturing report and appeared to clearly reflect slowing conditions. The non-manufacturing's prices index may more clearly reflect lower energy prices.
Bonds weakened further and the dollar firmed in reaction to the report. The data may prove a plus for the stock market, which has been edging back in recent sessions on concern of fourth-quarter slowness.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
The business activity index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey slowed significantly in September but remained in positive territory. The index fell from 57.0 in August to 52.9 in September. However, new orders picked up in September - will new orders translate into stronger overall activity in October?
Business activity index Consensus Forecast for October 06: 55.0 Range: 52.4 to 56.0
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Trends
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The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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