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Personal Income and Outlays
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Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
2/28/05
For
Jan 2005 |
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Personal Income, M/M change
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| Actual |
-2.3%
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| Consensus |
-2.6%
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| Consensus Range |
-3.0%
to
-2.0%
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Consumer Spending, M/M change
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Actual
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0.0%
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| Consensus |
0.1%
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| Consensus Range |
-0.2%
to
0.5%
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Highlights
Personal income fell a roughly as expected 2.3% in January with the comparison against December, which was up 3.7%, hurt by the big dividend payout from Microsoft.
Excluding Microsoft, the Commerce Department said income rose a solid 0.5% in January vs. a 0.6% gain in December. Growth in wages and salaries rose a solid 0.6% vs. a 0.5% gain in December. The savings rate fell to a soft 1.0% in the month following a Microsoft-inflated gain in December of 3.5%.
Personal spending was unchanged in January. Spending on durables was down 4.3% reflecting weak car and light truck sales in the month. Spending on non-durables was up 0.8% with spending on services up 0.4%.
The chain-weight personal consumption expenditure core price index -- a closely watched reading of inflation at the Federal Reserve -- rose a not-so-moderate 0.3% in the month but is up only 1.6% on the year. The readings are consistent with Alan Greenspan's inflationary assessment earlier this month -- that inflation pressures may be building but are currently well contained. The total chain-weight PCE price index was up a moderate 0.2% with the year-on-year rate at 2.2%.
The financial markets showed no reaction to the report, which confirms the current outlook for moderate gains in consumer income and spending.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income surged 3.7 percent in December due to special Microsoft dividend paid out during the month. As a result, economists are expecting personal income to decline in January as an offset to the absence of the dividend. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8 percent in December, boosted by a spurt in motor vehicle sales. These dropped in January, however, and this will depress consumer spending for the month. The closely-watched PCE index will be released with this report, but there is no consensus forecast available at this time.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for Jan 05: -2.6 percent Range: -3.0 to -2.0 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Jan 05: 0.1 percent Range: -0.2 to 0.5 percent
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Trends
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Personal Income and Outlays:
2005
Release Schedule
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