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Personal Income and Outlays
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Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
3/31/05
For
Feb 2005 |
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Personal Income, M/M change
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| Actual |
0.3%
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| Consensus |
0.4%
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| Consensus Range |
0.2%
to
0.6%
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Consumer Spending, M/M change
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Actual
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0.3%
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| Consensus |
0.5%
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| Consensus Range |
0.5%
to
0.7%
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Highlights
Inflation readings proved quiet in an unusually watched personal income & outlays report. The PCE core deflator -- a reading closely watched by Federal Reserve policy makers who are now focusing their vigilance on inflation -- rose a moderate 0.2% in February and is up a very mild 1.6% on the year.
The PCE deflator including food & energy showed, as usual, a little more pressure, rising 0.3% in the month and up a manageable and unalarming 2.3% on the year. These readings will cool inflation worries at the Fed, and they begin to push back worries in the markets that 50-basis-point rate increases are in the works.
Personal income rose 0.3% in February against a 0.5% rise in outlays. These readings are mostly as-expected and point to solid spending and moderate income growth, probably a favorable mix given still sluggish job growth and still tame inflation.
Wages & salaries rose 0.2% in the month while the savings rate fell two tenths to 0.6%.
Bonds moved higher and the dollar dipped probably in response to the inflation readings. But the direct effect of the data on the market is clouded by a sharp rise in jobless claims, data also released at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning and also favorable to the bond market. Whatever the effect, markets will turn on data from Chicago purchasers at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income fell 2.3 percent in January reflecting the end of the special Microsoft cash dividend. Although hourly earnings and the average workweek were unchanged in February, nonfarm payrolls posted a healthy gain and this could help boost income for the month. Personal consumption expenditures were unchanged in January, but February's retail sales figures point to an improvement for the month in the PCE figures as well.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for Feb 05: 0.4 percent Range: 0.2 to 0.6 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Feb 05: 0.5 percent Range: 0.5 to 0.7 percent
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Trends
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Personal Income and Outlays:
2005
Release Schedule
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