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Personal Income and Outlays
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Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
1/30/06
For
Dec 2005 |
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Personal Income, M/M change
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| Actual |
0.4%
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| Consensus |
0.4%
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| Consensus Range |
0.2%
to
0.8%
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| Previous |
0.4
%
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Consumer Spending, M/M change
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Actual
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0.9%
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| Consensus |
0.8%
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| Consensus Range |
0.5%
to
1.2%
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| Previous |
0.2
%
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Highlights
Personal income rose a respectable 0.4% in December and personal outlays were up a sharp 0.9%, both at or near expectations. Income showed a gain in transfer receipts tied to social security payments and a second straight steady wage gain of 0.3%. Gains for vehicle sales boosted outlays for a second straight month.
Price readings were tame, a plus for the economic outlook and ahead of tomorrow's big FOMC meeting. The core PCE deflator rose only 0.1%, though the two prior months were both revised upward a tenth to 0.2%. December's year-on-year core increase is 1.9%, under the 2.0% line where policy makers get nervous. The overall price index was unchanged and up 2.8% on the year.
A big negative in the report is once again the savings rate which showed a seventh straight monthly contraction, down a sharp 0.7% in December. The decline in savings raises questions on the sustainability of consumption.
Bonds firmed in what appeared to be a knee-jerk reaction to the benign core price reading. Further market reaction is likely to be limited. Consumer spending has been stimulated by vehicle incentives, an uncertain category due to thinning manufacturer margins.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.3 percent in November, slightly less than recent average monthly gains. Look for similar gains in December based on the employment situation. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent in November due to declines in nondurable goods. Consumption expenditures should be stronger in December based on monthly retail sales.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for Dec 05: 0.4 percent Range: 0.2 to 0.8 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Dec 05: 0.8 percent Range: 0.5 to 1.2 percent
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Trends
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Personal Income and Outlays:
2006
Release Schedule
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