|
|
|
Personal Income and Outlays
|
Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
|
| Released on
3/31/06
For
Feb 2006 |
|
Personal Income, M/M change
|
| Actual |
0.3%
|
| Consensus |
0.4%
|
| Consensus Range |
0.3%
to
0.6%
|
| Previous |
0.7
%
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer Spending, M/M change
|
|
Actual
|
0.1%
|
| Consensus |
0.0%
|
| Consensus Range |
-0.3%
to
0.4%
|
| Previous |
0.9
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Highlights
Personal income rose a respectable 0.3% in February, down from a 0.7% spike in January that was fed by government-related payments. Wages & salaries rose 0.4% in February, in line with their firm trend.
Consumption was lower in the month, up 0.1% vs. much higher gains in recent months including a 0.8% gain in January. The slowdown reflects a 1.9% dip in durables spending tied to car sales and a dip in non-durables tied in part to price changes for gasoline. Services spending was actually much higher in the month, up 0.9% and well above trend. In fact, overall consumption in the first two months of the year is well above the fourth quarter, up at an adjusted annual rate of 4.5% vs. 0.9% in the fourth quarter and pointing to strong GDP growth.
The savings rate posted yet another decline, down 0.5% and a factor that will limit future consumer spending. Savings have now contracted in eight of the last nine months.
The biggest news in the report was tame inflation readings including an unchanged reading in the overall PCE index and a 0.1% gain excluding energy and food. The year-on-year rise for the PCE, which in yesterday's revised GDP data showed a sharp 2.4% gain, was up only 1.8% -- back under the 2.0% limit set by Federal Reserve policy makers.
Bonds firmed in reaction to the data, specifically the core price reading. Other markets are not likely to show much reaction. The report points to more of the same: solid income gains and solid consumption unfortunately fed in part by savings.
|
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.7 percent in January, faster than recent monthly gains. Look for a similar gain in February based on the employment situation. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9 percent in January boosted by durable and nondurable goods spending. The retail sales report showed that consumption expenditures plunged in February.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for Feb 06: 0.4 percent Range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Feb 06: 0.0 percent Range: -0.3 to 0.4 percent
|
Trends
|
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
|
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
|
Data Source: Haver Analytics
|
|
Personal Income and Outlays:
2006
Release Schedule
|
|
|
|
powered by
|
|
Legal Notices | © Copyright 2000 -2006
Econoday, Inc.
|