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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/1/06 For Mar 2006 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Highlights
Personal income and outlays data indicate solid consumer health, with income up a stronger-than-expected 0.8% in March and outlays up a higher-than-expected 0.6%. The gains may be feeding inflation a bit, as overall and core readings showed pressure.
The rise in income extends a string of gains, benefiting in March from new Medicare prescription payments. Income also showed a 0.4% rise in wages & salaries for a second straight month that followed sharper increases in January and December. The gains haven't helped the savings rate which, down 0.3%, contracted for the ninth month in ten.
The gain in outlays followed a modest 0.2% gain in February that was held back by a very tough comparison with the 0.9% weather-induced jump in January. Outlays were led for a second month by services, followed by increases in durable goods and nondurable goods.
For prices, the PCE rose a steep 0.4% with the core PCE up a not-so-tame 0.3%. Year-on-year rates showed a 2.9% gain for the overall reading, the second straight such increase and the middle of recent trend, with the core up two tenths to 2.0%, at the high end of trend and at the limit that Federal Reserve officials point to.
There was little initial reaction in the markets, though the dollar did firm slightly.
Bulletin: The BEA issued a correction statement on Thursday May 4 indicating that they overestimated the Medicare prescription payment in the March data. Since April 1 fell on a Sunday, April payments were made on March 31. While the Treasury budget and outlay statement does reflect the payments as they are paid out, the BEA reflects the payments for the months they are should be in. Thus, March got two payments instead of one. See the FYI on May 4 for the BEA explanation.
After all is said and done, even though personal income really grew 0.5 percent instead of 0.8 percent, it does not change the underlying trends in personal income growth.
The "Trends" shown below reflect the corrected data. The data in the summary boxes above reflect the initial report.
Personal income increased 0.3 percent in February, slower than in the two previous months. Look for a similar gain in March based on the employment situation. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1 percent in February dampened by durable and nondurable goods spending. The retail sales report showed that consumption expenditures rose moderately in March.
Personal Income Consensus Forecast for Mar 06: 0.4 percent
Range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Consensus Forecast for Mar 06: 0.4 percent
Range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
![[Chart]](chart_1.gif)
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next. |
| Personal Income and Outlays: 2006 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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