2008 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays
Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care

Released on 5/26/06 For Apr 2006
Personal Income, M/M change
 Actual 0.5%  
 Consensus 0.7%  
 Consensus Range 0.5%  to  1.0%  
 Previous 0.8 %  
   
Consumer Spending, M/M change
  Actual 0.6%  
 Consensus 0.6%  
 Consensus Range 0.5%  to  0.8%  
 Previous 0.6 %  

Highlights
Personal income and outlays data indicate continued strength in the consumer sector, with income up a healthy 0.5% in April, following a 0.5% boost in March. The April gain was slightly below the consensus expectation of a 0.6% rise. Personal consumption for April rose 0.6%, following a 0.5% percent increase the prior month.

Indeed, the personal income report was very favorable for the consumer sector on the income side with wages and salaries rising 0.9% in April, following a 0.5% boost in March. However, personal consumption was led by nondurables which jumped 1.3% in April as higher gasoline prices boosted nominal spending in this category. In turn, the personal saving rate slipped to a minus 1.6% from minus 1.4% in March.

For prices, the overall PCE deflator rose a strong 0.5% with the core PCE up a more moderate 0.2%. Year-on-year rates showed a 2.9% gain for the overall reading, with the core up one tenth to 2.1%, at the high end of trend and at the upper limit that Federal Reserve officials point to.

Much of today's personal income report fit in with the known data from yesterday's GDP report. However, the changes on the monthly margin are a little clearer but not really different from expectations. Focus is on the key inflation measure PCEs excluding food and energy. We are still seeing some feed through of energy prices into non-energy components. But the impact is still moderate and there are still recent interest rate increases in the pipeline. Today's report does not tip the balance in either direction for whether the Fed will pause or continue further interest rate increases. Nonetheless, the consumer sector remains quite healthy and will remain an engine for continued economic growth this year.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.5 percent in March. Look for a similar or slightly larger gain in March based on the employment situation. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.6 percent in March boosted by spending on services. The retail sales report showed that consumption expenditures rose modestly in April.

Personal Income Consensus Forecast for Apr 06: 0.7 percent
Range: 0.5 to 1.0 percent

Personal Consumption Expenditures Consensus Forecast for Apr 06: 0.6 percent
Range: 0.5 to 0.8 percent
Trends
[Chart] Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.

[Chart] Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Personal Income and Outlays: 2006 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/30 3/1 3/31 5/1 5/26 6/30 8/1 8/31 9/29 10/30 11/30 12/22
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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