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Personal Income and Outlays
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Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
8/31/07
For
Jul 2007 |
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Personal Income - M/M change
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| Actual |
0.5%
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| Consensus |
0.3%
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| Consensus Range |
0.2%
to
0.5%
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| Previous |
0.4
%
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Consumer Spending - M/M change
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Actual
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0.4%
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| Consensus |
0.4%
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| Consensus Range |
0.3%
to
0.4%
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| Previous |
0.1
%
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Highlights
Today's personal income report showed a rebounding consumer but tame core inflation. Personal income growth continued strong in July, posting a 0.5 percent increase, following a 0.4 percent boost in June. The July advance was above the consensus projection for a 0.3 percent rise. Within personal income, the wages and salaries component grew 0.5 percent in July, matching June's gain. Personal income on a year-on-year rebounded to up 6.6 percent from up 6.1 percent in June.
Personal consumption strengthened in July, rising 0.4 percent, following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The market consensus had forecast a 0.4 percent jump in PCEs for June. Spending was led by nondurables, which rose 0.4 percent in July while durables and services advanced 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Personal consumption on a year-on-year edged declined to up 4.7 percent from up 5.2 percent in June.
The consumer is finding a little more spare change for saving as the personal saving rate rose to 0.7 percent in July from 0.5 percent in June.
There was good news on the inflation front as the core PCE price index rose 0.1 percent, down from June's 0.2 percent increase. The July core PCE price index came in below the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent increase. The overall PCE price index also moderated, rising 0.1 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The core PCE price index on a year-on-year basis was unchanged at 1.9 percent while the overall PCE price index slipped to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent in June. The core PCE price index has been inside the Fed's implicit target zone of 1 to 2 percent for two consecutive months.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.4 percent in June, following a 0.4 percent gain also in May. Within personal income, the wages and salaries component posted a 0.5 percent gain in June, following a 0.5 percent rise the month before. Personal consumption edged up only 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent boost in May. Spending weakness was in the volatile durables component which includes motor vehicle sales. On the inflation front, the core PCE price index rose 0.1 percent - the same as in the prior three months. The overall PCE price index eased, rising 0.1 percent in June, following a 0.5 percent jump in May. The latest employment report suggests a moderate rise in income while the latest CPI report indicates that the core PCE price index is likely to edge up.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for July 07: +0.3 percent Range: +0.2 to +0.5 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for July 07: +0.4 percent Range: +0.3 to +0.4 percent
Core PCE price index Consensus Forecast for July 07: +0.2 percent Range: +0.1 to +0.2 percent
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Trends
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Personal Income and Outlays:
2007
Release Schedule
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