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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/15/07 For Feb 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Philadelphia Fed's business activity index, at only 0.6 in February vs. 8.3 in January, did not confirm strength seen earlier today in the neighboring manufacturing region of New York which saw a big jump in activity. The Philadelphia report showed a contraction in new orders to -0.5 from January's 1.3 with shipments really weakening to 1.7 vs. January's 23.9.
Both reports did however show a contraction in inventories, at -1.9 for the Philadelphia report. The ISM manufacturing report has also been showing contraction in inventories indicating that supply managers are concerned that inventories are too high relative to business prospects. Both reports showed only moderate levels of price pressures consistent with less severe fuel costs. Prices paid in the Philadelphia report came in at 15.8 in February vs. 11.9 with prices received at 9.4 vs. 11.6 in January.
Industrial production data earlier this morning showed a sharp decline for manufacturing in January. Today's Philadelphia report, which is less volatile and more closely watched than the Empire State report, confirms the ISM's outlook for flat conditions over the next several months. Financial markets showed no initial reaction to the Philadelphia report which nevertheless may weigh on the stock market through the afternoon and which may give a lift to bonds.
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index rebounded moderately in January to 8.3 from a contractionary -2.3 in December. In general, manufacturing data have been a little on the soft side and that is helpful in bringing inflation down as long as factory output does not turn too negative.
Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for February 07: 4.5
Range: 0.0 to 12.0
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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